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Dynamic Analysis and Forecasts of Rough Rice Price under Government Price Support Program: An Application of Bayesian VAR

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  • No, Sung Chul
  • Salassi, Michael E.
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    Abstract

    This study constructs a Bayesian VAR model of US rice prices, in conjunction with supply and demand functions. Various validation tests are conducted to examine whether or not the BVAR model satisfies its dual functionality: Providing a dynamic analysis of the effects of a price support program and generating reasonable short-term rice price forecasts.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35279
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida with number 35279.

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    Date of creation: 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:saeaso:35279

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    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy;

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    1. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Barry Goodwin & Randy Schnepf & Erik Dohlman, 2005. "Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 253-263.
    3. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    4. Jean-Paul Chavas & Kwansoo Kim, 2004. "A Heteroskedastic Multivariate Tobit Analysis of Price Dynamics in the Presence of Price Floors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 576-593.
    5. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139, October.
    6. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Effects Of A Price Support Program On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(02), December.
    7. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(02), August.
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