A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts
AbstractIn traditional tests of forecast rationality, price forecasts are usually differenced to obtain stationarity. However, this data transformation may ignore important long-run information contained in forecasted price levels. Here, the concept of forecast consistency is paired with rationality concepts used in the market efficiency literature to develop a sequential testing procedure for forecast consistency and rationality. USDA quarterly livestock price forecasts do not demonstrate long-run consistency.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri with number 19042.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/
Demand and Price Analysis;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elam, Emmett W. & Holder, Shelby H., 1985. "An Evaluation Of The Rice Outlook And Situation Price Forecasts," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
- He, Dequan & Holt, Matthew T., 2004. "Efficiency Of Forest Commodity Futures Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20344, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
- Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
- Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002.
"Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
- McKenzie, Andrew M. & Holt, Matthew T., 1998. "Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20933, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995.
"Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models,"
- Cheung, Y. -W. & Chinn, M. D., 1998. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 813-830, October.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1997. "Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models," NBER Working Papers 5943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(02), August.
- Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(02), December.
- Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2002. "Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 223-239, April.
- Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec..
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.