Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets
AbstractThis paper tests for both long run and short run market efficiency and unbiasedness in five agricultural futures markets. The possible existence of constant and time varying risk premia are taken into account using cointegration procedures and error correction models within a GARCH framework.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT with number 20933.
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
- Sabuhoro, Jean Bosco & Larue, Bruno, 1997. "The market efficiency hypothesis: The case of coffee and cocoa futures," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 171-184, August.
- Moosa, Imad A. & Al-Loughani, Nabeel E., 1994. "Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 99-105, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Anthony Mananyi & John J. Struthers, 1997. "Cocoa market efficiency: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 141-151, September.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
- Sabuhoro, Jean Bosco & Larue, Bruno, 1997. "The market efficiency hypothesis: the case of coffee and cocoa futures," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(3), August.
- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages S39-54, April.
- Beck, Stacie E, 1993. "A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 149-68, February.
- Hall, S G, 1991. "The Effect of Varying Length VAR Models on the Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Cointegrating Vectors," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 317-23, November.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2003. "Is China'S Agricultural Futures Market Efficient?," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa, International Association of Agricultural Economists 25806, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Riva, Fabrice & Lautier, Delphine, 2004. "Liquidity and volatility in the American crude oil futures market," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1244, Paris Dauphine University.
- Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, March.
- Carcano, G. & Falbo, P. & Stefani, S., 2005. "Speculative trading in mean reverting markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 132-144, May.
- repec:rej:journl:v:16:y:2013:i:47:p:211-228 is not listed on IDEAS
- Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), June.
- Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Jian, 2014. "Are commodity futures markets short-term efficient? An empirical investigation," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France, Agricultural Economics Society 169763, Agricultural Economics Society.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Amine Lahiani, 2013.
"On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets,"
- Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 832-844.
- Prehn, Sören & Glauben, Thomas & Loy, Jens-Peter & Pies, Ingo & Will, Matthias Georg, 2014. "The impact of long-only index funds on price discovery and market performance in agricultural futures markets," IAMO Discussion Papers 147, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
- Jabir Ali & Kriti Bardhan Gupta, 2011. "Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 162-178, July.
- Schnake, Kristin N. & Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2012. "The Informational Content of Distant-Delivery Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), August.
- Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
- Armah, Stephen E., 2008. "Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6778, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.