A Sequential Rationality and Efficiency Test of U.S. Department of Agriculture Program Crop Price Estimates: Rice, Wheat, and Soybeans
AbstractThis paper examines the USDA price estimates of rice, wheat, and soybeans and whether spot commodity prices reflect price information embodied in USDA estimates. Results indicate that the monthly USDA estimates are failed to meet a rationality condition. Rice and wheat actual prices marginally incorporate the information embodied in USDA past price estimates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas with number 6814.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Crop Production/Industries;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
- Cheung, Y. -W. & Chinn, M. D., 1998.
"Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 813-830, October.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," International Finance 9508002, EconWPA.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1997. "Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models," NBER Working Papers 5943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2005. "Forecast Encompassing as the Necessary Condition to Reject Futures Market Efficiency: Fluid Milk Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 610-620.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Plain, Ronald L., 1998. "Evaluation Of Extension And Usda Price And Production Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.