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Structural Vector Autoregressions with Nonnormal Residuals

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Markku Lanne
Helmut Luetkepohl

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Abstract

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identifying restrictions for shocks and impulse responses are usually derived from economic theory or institutional constraints. Sometimes the restrictions are insufficient for identifying all shocks and impulse responses. In this paper it is pointed out that specific distributional assumptions can also help in identifying the structural shocks. In particular, a mixture of normal distributions is considered as a plausible model that can be used in this context. Our model setup makes it possible to test restrictions which are just-identifying in a standard SVAR framework. In particular, we can test for the number of transitory and permanent shocks in a cointegrated SVAR model. The results are illustrated using a data set from King, Plosser, Stock and Watson (1991) and a system of US and European interest rates.Classification-JEL: C32

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Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2005/25.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2005/25

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Keywords: Mixture normal distribution; cointegration; vector autoregressive process; vector error correction model; impulse responses;

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  1. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2007. "A Multivariate Generalized Orthogonal Factor GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 61-75, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Boswijk, H. Peter & Lucas, Andr‚, 1997. "Semi-nonparametric cointegration testing," Serie Research Memoranda 0041, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  4. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1999. "Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses of German Monetary Systems," CEPR Discussion Papers 2208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:1:p:81-100 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Lucas, Andr?, 1997. "Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 149-169, April. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2008. "A Statistical Comparison of Alternative Identification Schemes for Monetary Policy Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/23, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2008-50, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2008. "Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations: A Markov Switching Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/29, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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