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Evaluation Of Extension And Usda Price And Production Forecasts

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Author Info
Kastens, Terry L.
Schroeder, Ted C.
Plain, Ron
Abstract

This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are constructed from the survey data. These forecasts are compared to each other and to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast features and accuracy are examined. Generally, extension forecasts are more accurate than USDA forecasts for livestock series, but not more accurate for crops. Composite forecasts are often more accurate than either extension or USDA forecasts.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31180
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (1998)
Issue (Month): 01 (July)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:31180

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Related research
Keywords: Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Harris, H.M., Jr., 1976. "University Outlook Programs: A Review And Some Suggestions," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(02), December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-26.

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