Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal
AbstractThe focus of this paper is on the short-term macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia in a structural vector autoregression context. Government spending shocks are found to have positive and significant effects on output, private consumption, employment, prices and short-term interest rates. The cumulative output multiplier fluctuates between 1.12 and 1.19 from the first to third year after the spending innovation. Shocks to direct taxation seem to be less efficient, because they mainly affect private investment, whereas shocks to indirect taxation do not seem to affect real activities significantly. From a policy perspective, our results support the smoothing role of fiscal policy on output fluctuations, which implies its capacity to restore real activity effectively in critical times like the ones currently being forecast. From a theoretical standpoint, the results are consistent with real business cycle and Keynesian models of both traditional partial equilibrium and new general equilibrium types. Keywords:
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 005386.
Date of creation: 02 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-04-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-04-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-04-05 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
- Rodrigo Cerda & Hermann Gonzalez & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2006.
"Is fiscal policy effective? Evidence for an emerging economy: Chile 1833-2000,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 575-580.
- Rodrigo Cerda & Hermann GonzÃ¡lez & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2005. "Is Fiscal Policy Effective? Evidence for an Emerging Economy: Chile 1833-2000," Documentos de Trabajo 292, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1995.
"Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
- Aschauer, David Alan, 1989.
"Is public expenditure productive?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
- Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006.
"The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff & Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
- Pappa, Evi, 2005. "New-Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Afonso, António & Ebert, Werner & Schuknecht, Ludger & Thöne, Michael, 2005. "Quality of public finances and growth," Working Paper Series 0438, European Central Bank.
- Roberto Perotti, 2008.
"In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Perotti, 2007. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 13143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993.
"Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
- Francisco de Castro, 2006.
"The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
- Francisco de Castro, 2003. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0311, Banco de Espa�a.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, .
"Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia,"
Borradores de Economia
397, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks in Chile and Colombia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 370, Central Bank of Chile.
- Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002800, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, .
"Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience,"
Borradores de Economia
434, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002730, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Norma Judith Paternina).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.