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Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro

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  • Agata Szymańska

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu polityki fiskalnej na PKB w 6 krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej spoza strefy euro (Bułgaria, Chorwacja, Czechy, Polska, Rumunia, Węgry). Badanie przeprowadzono opierając się na strukturalnym modelu wektorowej autoregresji (SVAR) z identyfikacją szoków bazującą na podejściu zaproponowanym przez Blancharda i Perottiego [2002]. Analizy oparto na danych kwartalnych, przy czym, z uwagi na dostępność danych, w przypadku Polski i Chorwacji próba czasowa obejmowała okres 2002q1-2016q4, w przypadku Bułgarii i Czech – okres 2000q1-2016q4, w odniesieniu do Węgier – 1999q1-2016q4, zaś w przypadku Rumunii – 1996q1-2016q4. Wyniki badania empirycznego wskazują na pozytywną reakcję PKB na strukturalny szok wydatkowy w każdym z analizowanych krajów. Oszacowany dla wydatków mnożnik maksymalny nie przekraczał wartości 1 i kształtował się w granicach od 0,18 w Bułgarii do 0,76 w Polsce. W przypadku strukturalnego szoku w instrumencie dochodowym reakcja PKB w każdym kraju była początkowo ujemna, natomiast w całym horyzoncie, w którym analizowano funkcje reakcji na impuls (16 kwartałów), wystąpiły różnice między krajami.

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  • Agata Szymańska, 2018. "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 49-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2018:i:3:p:49-74
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    Keywords

    polityka fiskalna; SVAR; szok strukturalny; mnożnik fiskalny;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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