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Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences

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  • Craig Burnside
  • Martin Eichenbaum
  • Jonas Fisher

Abstract

This paper investigates the response of hours worked and real wages to fiscal policy shocks in the U.S. during the post World War II era. We identify these shocks with exogenous changes in military purchases and argue that they lead to a persistent increase in government purchases and tax rates on capital and labor income, and a persistent rise in aggregate hours worked as well as declines in real wages. The shocks are also associated with short lived rises in aggregate investment and small movements in private consumption. We describe and implement a methodology for assessing whether standard neoclassical models can account for the consequences of a fiscal policy shock. Simple versions of the neoclassical model can account for the qualitative effects of a fiscal shock. Once we allow for habit formation and investment adjustment costs, the model can also account reasonably well for the quantitative effects of a fiscal shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9772.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9772

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  8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  20. Eichenbaum, Martin S & Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78, February.
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  23. Ellen R. McGrattan & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The macroeconomic effects of big fiscal shocks: the case of World War II," Working Papers 599, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  1. Is it Possible that the President thinks Economists Agree That Spending is the Answer?
    by Matt Mitchell in Neighborhood Effects on 2010-10-05 18:18:32
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