A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers
Abstract
This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium context. We stress a potential source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability between private consumption and government expenditures and endogenous government expenditures. Due to crossequation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results prove to be robust to a number of perturbations.Download Info
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Paper provided by Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse in its series IDEI Working Papers with number 708.Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013.
Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:25756
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Keywords: ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Government spending rules; DSGE models; Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability; Multiplier;Other versions of this item:
- Fève, P. & Matheron, J. & Sahuc, J.G., 2012. "A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," Working papers 379, Banque de France.
- Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2012. "A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," TSE Working Papers 12-289, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2011. "A Pitfall with DSGE–Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," 2011 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2012-04-23 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
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Citations
Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Are multipliers larger than we thought?
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-05-08 14:56:00
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