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Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis

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  • Afonso, António
  • Baxa, Jaromír
  • Slavík, Michal

Abstract

We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress regimes. More specifically we employ a quarterly dataset, for the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Italy, for the period 1980:4-2009:4, encompassing macro, fiscal and financial variables. The results show that (i) the use of a nonlinear framework with regime switches is corroborated by nonlinearity tests; (ii) the responses of economic growth to a fiscal shock are mostly positive in both financial stress regimes; (iii) financial stress has a negative effect on output growth and worsens the fiscal position; (iv) the nonlinearity in the response of output growth to a fiscal shock is mainly associated with different behaviour across regimes; (v) the size of the fiscal multipliers is higher than average in the last crisis. JEL Classification: E62, G15, H60

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1319.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111319

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Keywords: financial markets; Fiscal Policy; threshold VAR;

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  1. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638.
  2. Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff & Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  2. Javier Andrés & José Boscá & Francisco Ferri, 2012. "Household leverage and fiscal multipliers," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1215, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
  4. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Giovanni Callegari & Giovanni Melina & Nicoletta Batini, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 12/190, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Threshold Regressions," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp167, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  7. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Fiscal policies and credit regimes: a tvar approach," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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