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Debt and the effects of fiscal policy

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Author Info
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi

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Abstract

Empirical investigations of the effects of fiscal policy shocks share a common weakness: taxes, government spending and interest rates are assumed to respond to various macroeconomic variables but not to the level of the public debt; moreover the impact of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio are not tracked. We analyze the effects of fiscal shocks allowing for a direct response of taxes, government spending and the cost of debt service to the level of the public debt. We show that omitting such a feedback can result in incorrect estimates of the dynamic effects of fiscal shocks. In particular the absence of an effect of fiscal shocks on long-term interest rates—a frequent finding in research based on VAR’s that omit a debt feedback—can be explained by their mis-specification, especially over samples in which the debt dynamics appears to be unstable. Using data for the U.S. economy and the identification assumption proposed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) we reconsider the effects of fiscal policy shocks correcting for these shortcomings.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 317.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:317

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  1. Mountford, A. & Uhlig, H., 2002. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Discussion Paper 31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Staff Report 364, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Roberto Perotti, 2007. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 825-837, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Antonio Fatas & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "The Euro and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 14722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Roberto Perotti, 2007. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 13143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. C. Bianchi & M. Menegatti, 2007. "Rules versus discretion in fiscal policy," Economics Department Working Papers 2007-EP05, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy). [Downloadable!]
  5. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Housing and Stock Prices," Working Papers 2008/58, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Claeys Peter, 2008. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," wp.comunite 0038, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher Reicher, 2009. "Fiscal Taylor Rules in the Postwar United States," Kiel Working Papers 1509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hess Chung & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "What Has Financed Government Debt?," NBER Working Papers 13425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2008. "A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-132. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," NIPE Working Papers 22/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair, 2008. "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 08/02, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 3/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Pereira, Manuel C, 2008. "Empirical evidence on the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in the US," MPRA Paper 17474, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2009. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lane, Philip R., 2009. "A New Fiscal Strategy for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 233–253. [Downloadable!]
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