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In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy

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Roberto Perotti

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Abstract

Most economists would agree that a hike in the federal funds rate will cause some slowdown in growth and inflation, and that the bulk of the empirical evidence is consistent with this statement. But perfectly reasonable economists can and do disagree even on the basic effects of a shock to government spending on goods and services: neoclassical models predict that private consumption and the real wage will fall, while some neo-keyenesian models predict the opposite. This paper discusses alternative time series methodologies to identify government spending shocks and to estimate their effects. Applying these methodologies to data from the US and three other OECD countries provides little evidence in favor of the neoclassical predictions. Using the US input-output tables, the paper then turns to industry-level evidence around two major military buildups to shed light on the effects of government spending shocks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13143.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13143

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James Feyrer & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2009. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. L. Marattin & S. Salotti, 2009. "The Response of Private Consumption to Different Public Spending Categories: VAR Evidence from UK," Working Papers 670, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  3. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the effects of fiscal policy," Working Papers 07-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Simple, Implementable Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 09/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2009. "Using stock returns to identify government spending shocks," Working Paper Series WP-09-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Sarah Zubairy, 2008. "A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-132. [Downloadable!]
  7. Agustín S. Bénétrix, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and Real Wages," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp288, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kühn, Stefan & Muysken, Joan & Veen, Tom van, 2009. "The Adverse Effects of Government Spending on Private Consumption in New Keynesian Models," Research Memoranda 004, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  9. Agustin S. Benetrix, IIIS, Trinity College Dublin. Philip R. Lane, IIIS, Trinity College Dublin, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp294, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ignacio Lozano Espitia & Karen Rodríguez, 2009. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005386, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, . "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 552, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mark A. Carlson & Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2009. "Distress in the financial sector and economic activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups," NBER Working Papers 14584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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