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Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK

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  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE)

Abstract

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on growth, and more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model of the British economy that takes into account long run factors such as public debt accumulation. We find that in such a long run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP growth; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic that was limited to a short run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number 2007-13.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1181

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Keywords: fiscal policy; golden rule of public finance; Structural VAR; Public Investment; UK Economy;

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. More on the Euro Crisis
    by Francesco Saraceno in Sparse Thoughts of a Gloomy European Economist on 2011-11-01 12:53:35
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline as a Social Norm: The European Stability Pact," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-22, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. Philip Arestis, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Is Still an Effective Instrument of Macroeconomic Policy," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 143-156, June.
  3. Frédéric Marty, 2007. "Partenariats public-privé, règles de discipline budgétaire, comptabilité patrimoniale et stratégies de hors bilan," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-29, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  4. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guillermo Perry & Luis Servén & Rodrigo Suescún, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth : Prudence or Abstinence," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6818, October.
  6. Philip Arestis & John McCombie, 2009. "On The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy As An Instrument Of Macroeconomic Policy," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 77-79, 03.

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