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Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact

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This paper describes recent trends on the efficiency of stabilisers in the European Union. Using both macro evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of budget deficit to economic activity, and micro evidence on the tax and expenditure profiles, we conclude, in agreement with the recent literature, that the importance of automatic stabilisation has decreased. After remarking that this trend is contradictory with the current economic institutions of Europe relying exclusively on automatic stabilisation for the conduct of fiscal policy, we argue that increasing flexibility, one alternative way to reduce cyclical fluctuations, does not seem a viable path. The paper concludes defending the appropriateness of discretionary fiscal policy. We argue by means of a simple model that the theoretical arguments against its use are not conclusive, and we describe a recent stream of literature, based on structural VAR models, that concludes rather robustly for the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy in the short and long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2008-15.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0815

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Keywords: Automatic stabilisers; progressivity; unemployment benefits; discretionary fiscal policy; European fiscal institutions;

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References

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  1. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  2. Barrell, R. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/2, European University Institute.
  3. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Reinventing fiscal policy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 3-25, October.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  5. Rafael Domenech & Javier Andres & Antonio Fatas, 2006. "The Stabilizing Role of Government Size," Working Papers 0603, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia, revised Jan 2007.
  6. Tödter, Karl-Heinz & Scharnagl, Michael, 2004. "How effective are automatic stabilisers? Theory and empirical results for Germany and other OECD countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Jan In 'T Veld, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, March.
  8. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
  9. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth," Studies in Economics 9821, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  10. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March.
  11. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
  12. Roberto Ricciuti, 2003. "Assessing Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 55-78, February.
  13. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Of Old Ideas about Inequality and Growth
    by Francesco Saraceno in Sparse Thoughts of a Gloomy European Economist on 2012-08-06 09:25:21
  2. Of Old Ideas about Inequality and Growth
    by Francesco Saraceno in Sparse Thoughts of a Gloomy European Economist on 2012-08-06 09:25:21
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2009. "How Deep is a Crisis? Policy Responses and Structural Factors Behind Diverging Performances," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-31, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "An assessment of Stability and Growth Pact Reform Proposals in a Small-Scale Macro Framework," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. European Commission, 2010. "Tax Policy after the Crisis: Monitoring Tax Revenues and Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2010 Report," Taxation Papers 24, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
  4. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "European economic governance: the Berlin-Washington consensus," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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