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Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle

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Author Info

  • Jérôme Creel
  • Éric Heyer
  • Mathieu Plane

Abstract

The economic and financial crisis has given way to Keynesian fiscal policy. To avoid a collapse of economic and financial system, all OECD countries have implemented recovery plans. Even if the uncertainty regarding the recovery is high, time is now, in most countries, for the adoption of fiscal consolidation policies. After reviewing the various evaluations of fiscal multipliers in economic literature, according to the method and instrument used, we make our own assessments. Our contribution is to take into account the economic situation of the country. A positive fiscal impulse will have a different impact depending on the activity that the economy is at the bottom or top of the cycle. In the case of fiscal stimulus on top of the cycle, the inflationary impact gradually cancels positive effects of this policy. Conversely, this same policy led down cycle will be permanently effective: it is not inflationary, lowering the structural unemployment with actual unemployment. JEL Classification codes: C13, C22, E12, E24, E32.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 116 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 61-88

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_116_0061

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

Related research

Keywords: macroeconometric model; economic cycle; NAIRU; fiscal policy;

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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Plaidoyer pour un pacte de croissance : beaucoup de bruit pour cacher un désaccord persistant
    by laurence-df in OFCE le blog on 2012-05-02 14:15:57
  2. Plea for a growth pact: the sound and fury hiding a persistent disagreement
    by laurence-df in OFCE le blog on 2012-05-03 16:16:20
  3. Moins d’austérité = plus de croissance et moins de chômage
    by laurence-df in OFCE le blog on 2012-05-21 13:34:29
  4. Less austerity = more growth and less unemployment
    by laurence-df in OFCE le blog on 2012-05-23 10:12:36
  5. Quelle est la taille du multiplicateur budgétaire ?
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-01-17 21:59:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Xavier Timbeau & Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Bruno Ducoudre & Eric Heyer & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Amel Falah & Céli, 2012. "La débacle de l'austérité: perspectives économiques 2012 2013 pour l'économie mondiale," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09la925h1i9 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Eric Heyer, 2011. "The effectiveness of economic policy and position in the cycle: the case of tax reductions on overtime in France," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 364-379.
  4. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno,, 2013. "Assessing future sustainability of french public finances," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  5. Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "Le commencement de la déflation : perspectives 2013-2014," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6, Sciences Po.
  6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p9k74a8 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Marion Cochard & Mathieu Plane & Danielle Schweisguth, 2013. "PIB, déficit, dette, chômage : où vont les économies à moyen terme," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6, Sciences Po.
  8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09l92ah01s1 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. G. Cléaud & M. Lemoine & P.-A. Pionnier, 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2013-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  10. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2012. "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 537-563.
  11. Xavier Timbeau, 2012. "La débâcle de l'austérité: Perspectives 2012-2013," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  12. Truger, Achim, 2013. "Austerity in the Euro area: The sad state of economic policy in Germany and the EU," IPE Working Papers 22/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
  13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n09hk8ojo is not listed on IDEAS

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