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Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle : le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France

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  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE)

Abstract

La situation conjoncturelle de l’ensemble des grands pays développés a fortement évolué au cours de la période 2007-2010. Or de nombreuses mesures de politique économique ont été maintenues. C’est le cas notamment de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires et son exonération de cotisations sociales, mesure centrale dans le dispositif du gouvernement français. Dans ce travail nous proposons des simulations de ce dispositif en fonction de la conjoncture dans laquelle celui-ci est mis en place. D’après nos simulations, une telle mesure apparaît pro cyclique et donc mal adaptée à la situation actuelle de l’économie française. Par ailleurs, notons que même dans le cas d’une bonne conjoncture, ce dispositif ne serait pas financé. Sans financement, cette mesure viendrait creuser le déficit public et s’apparenterait à une relance budgétaire. Son financement par une hausse des prélèvements en changerait radicalement la nature.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number 2010-26.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo

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Keywords: Modèle macroéconométrique; cycle économique; NAIRU; courbe de Phillips; hystérésis;

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Cited by:
  1. Mireille Elbaum, 2011. "Le financement de la protection sociale : quelles perspectives au-delà des solutions miracles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-27, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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