Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper confronts, theoretically and empirically, two estimation methods for the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment (ERU). By introducing observable variables into the TV-NAIRU approach and unobservable variables into the structural approach, we show how these two methods can converge even though their diagnoses differ appreciably in the French case. We considerably improve the econometric and explanatory properties of the French TV-NAIRU model by identifying some of its determinants (interest rates, labour productivity). Moreover, by distinguishing between the concepts of long-term and medium-term ERU, we separate the medium- from the long-term and the observable from the unobservable components of the ERU.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2004-06.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2004-06.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0406

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 69, quai d'Orsay - 75007 PARIS
Phone: 01 44 18 54 00
Fax: 01 45 56 06 15
Email:
Web page: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March.
  2. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
  3. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Henri Delessy & Philippine Cour & Hervé Le Bihan & Henri Sterdyniak, 1997. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre, anciennes et nouvelles approches," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5268, Sciences Po.
  5. Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5% en France ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1625, Sciences Po.
  6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
  8. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Olivier Passet & Christine Rifflart & Henri Sterdyniak, 1997. "Ralentissement de la croissance potentielle et hausse du chômage," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 109-146.
  10. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
  11. Henri Sterdyniak & Michèle Debonneuil, 1984. "La boucle prix-salaires dans l'inflation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(2), pages 267-312.
  12. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
  14. Caballero, R.J. & Hammour, M.L., 1997. "Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor-Substitution, and Unemployment," Working papers 97-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. Heyer, E. & Le Bihan, H. & Lerais, F., 1999. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1999-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  16. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 024, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  17. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  18. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  19. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, May.
  20. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
  21. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  22. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
  23. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  24. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
  25. Henri Delessy & Philippine Cour & Hervé Le Bihan & Henri Sterdyniak, 1997. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre, anciennes et nouvelles approches," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5268, Sciences Po.
  26. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francesco Saraceno).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.