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Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States

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Eric Heyer (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
Frederic Reynes (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
Henri Sterdyniak (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)

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Abstract

This paper confronts, theoretically and empirically, two estimation methods for the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment (ERU). By introducing observable variables into the TV-NAIRU approach and unobservable variables into the structural approach, we show how these two methods can converge even though their diagnoses differ appreciably in the French case. We considerably improve the econometric and explanatory properties of the French TV-NAIRU model by identifying some of its determinants (interest rates, labour productivity). Moreover, by distinguishing between the concepts of long-term and medium-term ERU, we separate the medium- from the long-term and the observable from the unobservable components of the ERU.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2004-06.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0406

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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  3. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Hammour, Mohamad L., 1998. "Jobless growth: appropriability, factor substitution, and unemployment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 51-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1.
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