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Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for the euro-area: comparing production function with unobserved components and SVAR approaches

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Matthieu Lemoine (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
Gian Luigi Mazzi (Eurostat)
Paola Monperrus-Veroni (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
Frédéric Reynes (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2008-34.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0834

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  1. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eric Heyer & Frederic Reynes & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la theorie du taux de chomage d’equilibre, une comparaison France/Etats-Unis," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  6. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  7. Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2001. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Working Paper Series 065, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "A multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  11. Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Patrice Ollivaud & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot, 2006. "New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 482, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2008. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries: a comparison," PSE Working Papers 2008-35, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  16. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  17. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Jacques Anas & Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2008. "A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 549-577, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  21. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  25. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 653-58, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Documents de Travail 75, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  29. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12. [Downloadable!]
  30. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  31. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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