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A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU

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  • Apel, Mikael

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Jansson, Per

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

A new approach is proposed for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. Identification is achieved using Okun’s law and a Phillips curve. The performance of the methodology is exemplified using data from Canada, the UK, and the US.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 74.

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Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economics Letters, 1999, pages 271-275.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0074

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
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Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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Keywords: NAIRU; Okun's law; Phillips curve; Potential output; Unobserved-components models;

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References

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  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  3. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
  4. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
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