Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • C�cile Denis
  • Daniel Grenouilleau
  • Kieran Mc Morrow
  • Werner R�ger

Abstract

Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication746_en.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 247.

as in new window
Length: 107 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0247

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Email:
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: growth rates; cyclical developments; production function; potential output; Denis; Grenouilleau; Mc Morrow; R�ger;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
  2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  3. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  4. Francesco Daveri, . "Is Growth an Information Technology Story in Europe Too?," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-12, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  5. Iris Claus, 2000. "Is the output gap a useful indicator of inflation?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. Jonathan Temple, 2000. "Summary of an Informal Workshop on the Causes of Economic Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 260, OECD Publishing.
  7. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  8. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
  10. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  11. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 261, OECD Publishing.
  12. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  13. Griliches, Zvi, 1997. "Education, Human Capital, and Growth: A Personal Perspective," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S330-44, January.
  14. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Dave Turner & Pete Richardson & Sylvie Rauffet, 1996. "Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 167, OECD Publishing.
  16. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  17. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "Productivity Growth and the New Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1284, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1998. "A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU," Working Paper Series 74, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  20. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9609, Banco de Espa�a.
  21. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Stylised facts from output gap measures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  22. William D. Nordhaus, 2001. "Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 8095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Fabio Canova, 1994. "Does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points?," Economics Working Papers 113, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 1995.
  24. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  25. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 1994. "Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big Is the Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 273-334.
  26. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
  27. Hamilton, James D. & Monteagudo, Josefina, 1998. "The augmented Solow model and the productivity slowdown," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 495-509, October.
  28. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
  29. Kevin J. Stiroh & Dale W. Jorgenson, 2000. "U.S. Economic Growth at the Industry Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 161-167, May.
  30. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9609, Banco de Espa�a.
  31. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
  32. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Alfonso Arpaia & Karl Pichelmann, 2007. "Nominal and real wage flexibility in EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 299-328, November.
  2. Moisa Altar & Ciprian Necula & Gabriel Bobeica, 2009. "A Robust Assessment of the Romanian Business Cycle," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 28, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
  3. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
  4. Torsten Schmidt & Helmut Hofer & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2010. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0177, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  5. Dana Hájková & Jaromír Hurník, 2007. "Cobb-Douglas Production Function: The Case of a Converging Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(9-10), pages 465-476, October.
  6. Lemoine, M. & de la Serve, M.E. & Chetouane, M., 2011. "Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)," Working papers 331, Banque de France.
  7. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2008. "Fiscal policy in the macroeconomic policy mix: A Critique of the New Consensus Model and a comparison of macroeconomic policies in France, Germany, the UK and Sweden from a Post-Keynesian perspective," IMK Working Paper 03-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  8. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for the euro-area: comparing production function with unobserved components and SVAR approaches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  9. Jaromír Hurník & Dana Hájková, 2007. "Supply-Side Performance in the Czech Republic: A Macroeconomic View (1995-2005)," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2007(4), pages 319-335.
  10. Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-99, July.
  11. Igor Lebrun, 2009. "Working Paper 03-09 - S3BE : un modèle macroéconomique de long terme pour l’économie belge," Working Papers 0903, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
  12. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2008. "The marginal likelihood of Structural Time Series Models, with application to the euroareaa nd US NAIRU," Working Paper Series 21-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  13. Paolo Biraschi & Lorenzo Codogno & Federico Giammusso & Manuela Nenna & Juan Pradelli, . "Are Italy's public finances sustainable? The role of demographics, productivity, and labour markets," Working Papers wp2008-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  14. Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Sandra Steindl & Thomas Url, 2008. "A Decomposition of Austria's General Government Budget into Structural and Cyclical Components," WIFO Working Papers 316, WIFO.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.