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Stylised facts from output gap measures

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Author Info
Alasdair Scott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Abstract

This paper compares three models of the output gap in New Zealand - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's incumbent MV filter, estimates from a Structural VAR, and a multivariate unobserved components model - and investigates whether there are features that are consistent across the measures of the gap. Various detrending methods are used for benchmarking the output gap measures, including a linear trend, a fourth difference filter, a band-pass filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, an "optimal" procedure, and a nonparametric estimator of permanent trend. The estimates of the gap are examined to see how they compare as to the lengths and amplitudes of cycles, whether they exhibit regular periodicity and regular shapes, whether they are symmetric in phases and severity of swings, and whether they point to the same turning points. The analysis leads to the conclusion that while different filters result in estimates of the output gap with quite different properties, the three models are generally in agreement about the historical profile of the output gap, if not its precise level. Moreover, there are signs that the models are increasingly in agreement about the level of the gap, indicating that the growth cycle is becoming more regular in the 1990s.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2000/07.

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Length: 23p
Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2000/07

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E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. James Tobin, 1997. "Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1150, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor & C. John McDermott, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
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  8. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1996. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Working Papers 96/69, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  11. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 04/136, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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