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• Pete Richardson

If a macroeconometric model is to be useful for policy analyses which go beyond short-term forecasting requirements, particular attention must be paid to the form and consistency of its various components with respect to longer-term equilibria. In particular, long-run properties and ultimate stability of such models with respect to output, employment and inflation depend crucially on the consistency and form of the supply-side specification.

This paper presents recent work by the OECD contributing to its INTERLINK world model. It focuses on the specification and estimation of the supply-side aspects of the sub-models for the seven major OECD Member countries. It presents a general analytical framework for the specification of a consistent model of business sector behaviour within a dynamic form which meets both short-term forecasting and longer-term theoretical requirements. Comparative estimation results are reported for individual economies along with simulation results for a ...

Pour qu’un modèle macroéconométrique soit utile aux analyses de politique économique qui vont au delà des besoins des prévisions à court terme, on doit porter une attention particulière à la conformation et à la cohérence de ses différentes composantes eu égard aux équilibres de plus long terme. En particulier, les propriétés à long terme et la stabilité finale de tels modèles en ce qui concerne la production, l’emploi et l’inflation dépendent de façon cruciale de la cohérence et de la conformation des spécifications du secteur de l’offre.

Cet article présente les travaux récents menés par l’OCDE sur son modèle mondial INTERLINK. On y met l’accent sur les spécifications et les estimations concernant le secteur de l’offre des sous modèles pour les sept principaux pays Membres de l’OCDE. Il présente un cadre analytique général pour la spécification d’un modèle cohérent du comportement du secteur des entreprises sous un aspect dynamique, qui répond à la fois aux nécessités de la ...

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Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 167.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:167-en

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