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The production function approach to the Belgian output gap: Estimation of a multivariate structural time series model

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Author Info
Philippe Moës () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

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Abstract

A multivariate structural time series model is applied to the factor inputs of a production function to estimate the Belgian output gap. The number of independent cycles and the frequencies are not restricted a priori. Phase shifts are introduced to allow for leads and lags. Over 1983-2004, a 3.5 years periodicity is found in the cycles. The cycles in the participation and unemployment rates are negligible. Two independent cycles hide behind the cycles of the other variables: hours, TFP and capacity utilization. Phase shifts are significant, with hours leading by as much as 3 quarters and capacity utilization lagging.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Editions du DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA) in its journal Brussels Economic Journal/Cahiers Economiques de Bruxelles.

Volume (Year): 49 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 59-89
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Handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2006:v:49:i:1:p:59-89

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycle; Output gap; Phase shifts; Structural time series models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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