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Multivariate models with dual cycles: implications for output gap and potential growth measurement

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  • Philippe Moës

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-011-0454-3
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 791-818

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:42:y:2012:i:3:p:791-818

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Related research

Keywords: Output gap; Potential growth; Hysteresis; Structural time series models; C32; E32;

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References

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  1. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-006, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  2. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kum Hwa Oh & Eric Zivot, 2006. "The Clark Model with Correlated Components," Working Papers UWEC-2006-06, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  5. Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1990. "Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment: An Unobserved Components Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 185-98.
  7. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, estimation of a multivariate structural time series model," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(1), pages 59-91.
  8. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2008. "The marginal likelihood of Structural Time Series Models, with application to the euroareaa nd US NAIRU," Working Paper Series 21-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  10. Proietti, Tommaso & Musso, Alberto, 2007. "Growth accounting for the euro area: a structural approach," Working Paper Series 0804, European Central Bank.
  11. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, 03.
  12. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 61-84.
  13. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  14. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "Hysteresis and Unemployment," Working papers 430, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/09, European University Institute.
  16. Gerhard Runstler, 2004. "Modelling phase shifts among stochastic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 232-248, 06.
  17. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
  18. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
  19. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
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