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Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach

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Tommaso PROIETTI
Alberto MUSSO
Thomas WESTERMANN

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Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2002/09.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2002/09

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  5. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  6. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "A multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  16. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-32, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Gerhard Ruenstler, 2002. "The information content of real-time output GAP estimates: an application to the Euro area," Working Paper Series 182, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. Fabio Busetti & Andrew C Harvey, 1998. "Testing for the Presence of a Random Walk in Series with Structural Breaks - (Now published in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 22 (2001), pp.127-150.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1998/365, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Jane T. Haltmaier, 1996. "Inflation-adjusted potential output," International Finance Discussion Papers 561, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  28. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  29. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
  30. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  31. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1997. "History and theory of the NAIRU: a critical review," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 4-25. [Downloadable!]
  34. Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/09, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  35. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  36. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  37. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1998. "A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU," Working Paper Series 74, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  38. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  40. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  41. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  42. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela, 2001. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Working Paper Series 054, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  43. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  44. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  45. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  46. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jinghai Zheng & Angang Hu & Arne Bigsten, 2009. "Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 317-342. [Downloadable!]
  3. T. Berger, 2008. "Estimating Europe’s Natural Rates from a forward-looking Phillips curve," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/498, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  4. Elke Hahn, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marta Areosa, 2008. "Combining Hodrick-Prescott Filtering with a Production Function Approach to Estimate Output Gap," Working Papers Series 172, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the Euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 811, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso, 2007. "Growth accounting for the Euro area - a structural approach," Working Paper Series 804, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," MPRA Paper 6854, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Osmani Teixera de Carvalho Guillén, 2004. "Estimating Potential Output And The Output Gap For Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  13. Livio Stracca, 2006. "A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area," Working Paper Series 600, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations: Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 05/228, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for the euro-area: comparing production function with unobserved components and SVAR approaches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Tatiana Cesaroni & Carmine Pappalardo, 2008. "Long run and short run dynamics in italian manufacturing labour productivity," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(15), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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