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A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zone', part of the Advanced statistical and econometric techniques for the analysis of PEEIs EUROSTAT Project , December 2007

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Author Info

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (Observatoire fran�ais des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po, Paris, France)

  • Gian Luigi Mazzi

    (Eurostat-D1 Key Indicators for European Policies, Luxembourg, Luxembourg)

  • Paola Monperrus-Veroni

    (Observatoire fran�ais des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po, Paris, France)

  • Frédéric Reynes

Abstract

We develop a new version of the production function (PF) approach for estimating the output gap of the euro area. Assuming a CES (constant elasticity of substitution) technology, our model does not call for any (often imprecise) measure of the capital stock and improves the estimation of the trend total factor productivity using a multivariate unobserved components model. With real-time data, we assess this approach by comparing it with the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and with a Cobb-Douglas PF approach with common cycle and implemented with a multivariate unobserved components model. Our new PF estimate appears highly concordant with the reference chronology of turning points and has better real-time properties than the univariate HP filter for sufficiently long time horizons. Its inflation forecasting power appears, like the other multivariate approach, less favourable than the statistical univariate method. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1157
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
Pages: 29-53

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:1-2:p:29-53

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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Cited by:
  1. Lemoine, M. & de la Serve, M.E. & Chetouane, M., 2011. "Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)," Working papers 331, Banque de France.
  2. Frédéric Reynès, 2011. "The Cobb-Gouglas function as an approximation of other functions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-21, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. Chetouane, Mabrouk & Lemoine, Matthieu & De la Serve, Marie-Elisabeth, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/6706, Université Paris-Dauphine.

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