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Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro-Area Phillips Curve

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  • Alberto Musso

    (European Central Bank)

  • Livio Stracca

    (European Central Bank)

  • Dick van Dijk

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the functional form of the euro-area Phillips curve over the past three decades. In particular, compared with previous literature, we analyze the stability of the relationship in detail, especially as regards the possibility of a time-varying mean of inflation. Moreover, we conduct a sensitivity analysis across different measures of economic slack. Our main findings are two. First, there is strong evidence of time variation in the mean and slope of the Phillips curve occurring in the early to mid-1980s, but not in inflation persistence once the mean shift is allowed for. As a result of the structural change, the Phillips curve became flatter around a lower mean of inflation. Second, we find no significant evidence of nonlinearity - in particular, in relation to the output gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 181-212

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:2:a:6

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sarah M. Lein & Eva Köberl, 2009. "Capacity Utilisation, Constraints and Price Adjustments under the Microscope," KOF Working papers 09-239, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  3. Buchmann, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
  4. Robert Anderton & Paul Hiebert, . "The Impact of Globalisation on the Euro Area Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 09/14, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  5. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, . "Key elements of global inflation," Discussion Papers 09/22, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  6. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
  7. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Nonlinearity of the inflation-output trade-off and time-varying price rigidity," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-1, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  8. Axel A Weber & Rafael Gerke & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Has the monetary transmission process in the euro area changed? Evidence vased on VAR estimates," BIS Working Papers 276, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
  10. Wolfgang Pollan, . "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
  11. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2012. "On the Usefulness or Lack Thereof of Optimality Criteria for Structural Change Tests," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-258, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  13. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Matthew Doyle & Barry Falk, 2009. "Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?," Working Papers 0902, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  15. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & D’Agostino, Antonello & Dieppe, Alistair & Hurtado, Samuel & Karlsson, Tohmas & Ortega, Eva & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.

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