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The evolving inflation process: an overview

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  • Gabriele Galati
  • William R. Melick

    (Kenyon College)

Abstract

This paper reviews analytical work carried out by central banks that participated in the Autumn Meeting of Central Bank Economists on "The evolving inflation process" which the BIS hosted on 28-29 October 2005. The paper first discusses efforts to document the univariate statistical properties of inflation and how they have changed over the last decades. It then reviews studies of disaggregated or micro inflation data and evidence from surveys of firms concerning their pricing behaviour. Using this micro evidence as background, the paper also attempts to understand the proximate causes for any changes in the inflation process, such as disparities in the price behaviour of tradables and non-tradables or movements in energy prices. The paper then summarises central bank research on changes in the ultimate determinants of factors impinging on the inflation process, for example a changing monetary policy regime, increased globalisation or a legislative reform of the labour market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 196.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:196

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Related research

Keywords: business fluctuations; cycles; market structure and pricing; economic integration and globalization; inflation; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2005. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," Working Papers 05-4, Bank of Canada.
  2. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-jin & Parsley, David, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Scholarly Articles 10494212, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the Euro area: new survey evidence," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0536, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 353-370.
  7. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
  3. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
  4. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro-Area Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 181-212, June.
  5. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2007. "Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia," Working Papers 2007/03, Latvijas Banka.
  6. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the great moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-56, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
  8. Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Inflation and Monetary Policy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 37–54.
  9. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  11. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Meeting Maastricht: Nominal convergence of the new member states toward EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 507-515, March.
  13. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. William R. White, 2012. "Ultra easy monetary policy and the law of unintended consequences," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 126, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  15. University of California & Giacomo Rondina, 2008. "Incomplete Information and Informative Pricing: Theory and Application," 2008 Meeting Papers 981, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Toshitaka Sekine & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Activism," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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