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Is the inflation-output Nexus asymmetric in the Euro area?

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  • Baghli, Mustapha
  • Cahn, Christophe
  • Fraisse, Henri

Abstract

This paper challenges the assumption that the inflation process within the euro area is well-described by a linear Phillips curve and investigates in a nonparametric framework how inflation is sensitive to output growth. An asymmetric output-inflation trade-off is pointed out in the euro area at both aggregated and individual country levels.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4MFKD0B-1/2/34a64a044a3a6f7f6ebf56535967e55d
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 94 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-6

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:94:y:2007:i:1:p:1-6

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References

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  1. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Buchinsky, Moshe, 2002. "ON THE NUMBER OF BOOTSTRAP REPETITIONS FOR BCa CONFIDENCE INTERVALS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 962-984, August.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
  6. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  8. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
  10. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, EconWPA.
  11. Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
  12. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Park, Sangin, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variables estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 381-399, February.
  15. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  17. Peter B. Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1995. "Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism," IMF Working Papers 95/75, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Singh, Radhey S. & Ullah, Aman, 1985. "Nonparametric Time-Series Estimation of Joint DGP, Conditional DGP, and Vector Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 27-52, April.
  19. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
  20. P Clark & D Laxton, 1997. "Phillips Curves," CEP Discussion Papers dp0344, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Buchmann, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
  2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
  3. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro-Area Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 181-212, June.
  4. Sarah Marit Lein & Eva Köberl, 2009. "Capacity Utilisation, Constraintes and Price Adjustments under the Microscope," Working Papers 2009-06, Swiss National Bank.
  5. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
  6. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & D’Agostino, Antonello & Dieppe, Alistair & Hurtado, Samuel & Karlsson, Tohmas & Ortega, Eva & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.

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