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Which nonlinearity in the Phillips curve? The absence of accelerating deflation in Japan

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Abstract

It is standard to model the output-inflation trade-off as a linear relationship with a time-invariant slope. We assess empirical evidence for three types of nonlinearity in the short-run Phillips curve. At an empirical level, we aim to discover why large negative output gaps in Japan during the period 1998-2002 did not lead to accelerating deflation, but instead coincided with stable, albeit moderately negative, inflation. We document that this episode is most convincingly interpreted as reflecting a gradual flattening of the Phillips curve. Our analysis sheds light on the determinants of the time-variation in the Phillips curve slope. Our results suggest that, in any economy where trend inflation is substantially lower (or substantially higher) today than in past decades, time-variation in the slope of the short-run Phillips curve has become too important to ignore.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2007/14.

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Length: 51 p.
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2007/14

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Cited by:
  1. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
  2. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew T. Levin, 2012. "When Did Firms Become More Different? Time-Varying Firm-Specific Volatility in Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2012-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. André Meier, 2010. "Still Minding the Gap," IMF Working Papers 10/189, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2011. "Inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero," Working Papers 11-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2011. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," MPRA Paper 49388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Sarah M. Lein & Eva Köberl, 2009. "Capacity Utilisation, Constraints and Price Adjustments under the Microscope," KOF Working papers 09-239, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  8. Wimanda, Rizki E. & Turner, Paul M. & Hall, Maximilian J.B., 2011. "Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-438, May.
  9. Musso, Alberto & Stracca, Livio & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 0811, European Central Bank.
  10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Sudhanshu Kumar & Naveen Srinivasan & Muthiah Ramachandran, 2012. "A time-varying parameter model of inflation in India," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 25-50, April.

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