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Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone: what can be learned about implementing a single monetary policy?

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Author Info

  • Jean-Jacques Durand
  • Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon
  • Julien Licheron

Abstract

This article focuses on the comparison of sacrifice ratios as an indicator for structural dispersion within the euro area over the period 1972-2003. Estimates of the sacrifice ratio, defined as the cumulative output cost arising from permanent inflation reduction, are obtained using structural VAR models. Results from sub-period analysis as well as 10-year-period rolling estimates lead to two main conclusions. First, empirical evidence displays a recent increase in the average sacrifice ratio, which can be linked to the simultaneous decrease in the average inflation rate: this negative relationship between the initial level of inflation and the cost of disinflation can be seen as a justification for the choice of an inflation objective close to 2% for the European Central Bank (ECB) rather than a target of perfect price stability, potentially very damaging. Second, we cannot provide evidence of any reduction in European sacrifice ratio dispersion, which would suggest that the nominal convergence triggered by the Maastricht Treaty did not involve a true reduction of structural differences. It is likely to be a problem in the stance of a single monetary policy, because structural differences imply asymmetric responses of real national economies to the same monetary impulse.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02692170802287672
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 601-621

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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:22:y:2008:i:5:p:601-621

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Related research

Keywords: sacrifice ratio; monetary policy; convergence; Economic and Monetary Union (EMU);

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References

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  1. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
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  7. W. Wascher & Palle S. Andersen, 1999. "Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation," BIS Working Papers 82, Bank for International Settlements.
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  9. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-27, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2010. "Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio? Disinflation in a DSGE monetary model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 736, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Coffinet, J. & Matheron, J. & Poilly , C., 2007. "Une évaluation structurelle du ratio de sacrifice dans la zone euro," Working papers 163, Banque de France.
  3. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2013. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-100.
  4. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & D’Agostino, Antonello & Dieppe, Alistair & Hurtado, Samuel & Karlsson, Tohmas & Ortega, Eva & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
  5. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2012. "Disinflation in a DSGE perspective: Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 169-182.
  6. Coffinet, J., 2006. "Ratios de sacrifice et rigidités sur le marché du travail," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 151, pages 59-73.

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