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Hysteresis and Nairu in the Euro Area

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Author Info

  • Camille Logeay

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Silke Tober

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

Abstract

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long-term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 04-2005.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:04-2005

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Related research

Keywords: Nairu; hysteresis; Kalman Filter; Phillips curve; superneutrality;

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Cited by:
  1. Congregado, Emilio & Golpe, Antonio A. & Parker, Simon C., 2009. "The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 4093, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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