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Hysteresis and Nairu in the Euro Area

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Author Info

  • Camille Logeay

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Silke Tober

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long-term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy.

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    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_04_2005.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 04-2005.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:04-2005

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    Related research

    Keywords: Nairu; hysteresis; Kalman Filter; Phillips curve; superneutrality;

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