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Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio

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Author Info
Cecchetti, Stephen G
Rich, Robert W

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Abstract

This article investigates the statistical properties of the U.S. sacrifice ratio--the cumulative output loss arising from a permanent reduction in inflation. We derive estimates of the sacrifice ratio from three structural vector autoregression models and then conduct a series of simulation exercises to analyze their sampling distribution. We obtain point estimates of the sacrifice ratio that are consistent with results reported in earlier studies. However, the estimates are very imprecise, which we suggest reflects the poor quality of instruments used in estimation. We conclude that the estimates provide a very unreliable guide for assessing the output cost of disinflation policy.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 416-27
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:19:y:2001:i:4:p:416-27

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III. [Downloadable!]
  3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1982-1), pages 205-244. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
  6. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-52, May.
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1991. "Moderate inflation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 807, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Inflation and growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 153-169. [Downloadable!]
  10. Taylor, John B, 1983. "Union Wage Settlements during a Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 981-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998. "Structural Models Of The Liquidity Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 202-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jean-Jacques Durand & Julien Licheron, 2008. "Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone:What can be learned about implementing a Single Monetary Policy?," Post-Print halshs-00143793_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marek Jarocinski, 2006. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," Working Papers 124, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Julia Lendvai, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Disinflation in a DSGE Perspective: Sacrifice Ratio or Welfare Gain Ratio?," Kiel Working Papers 1499, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roy H. Webb, 1999. "Two approaches to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 23-40. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert-Paul Berben & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Javier Valles, 2004. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 400, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. JUNCAL CUñNADO & FERNANDO PÉREZ DE GRACIA, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Juncal Cuñado Eizaguirre & Fernando Pérez de Gracía Hidalgo, . "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un análisis empírico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2005. "Thresholds for Employment and Unemployment - a Spatial Analysis of German Regional Labour Markets 1992-2000," ERSA conference papers ersa05p39, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "Changes in the Federal Reserve’s Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 607, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Roman Hušek & Tomáš Formánek, 2005. "Estimation Of The Czech Republic Sacrifice Ratio For The Transition Period," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(1), pages 51-63. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2003. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers of BETA 2003-08, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2007. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: a DSGE Perspective," IDEI Working Papers 483, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  16. Coffinet, J. & Matheron, J. & Poilly , C., 2007. "Une évaluation structurelle du ratio de sacrifice dans la zone euro," Documents de Travail 163, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  17. Pyyhtiä, Ilmo, 1999. "The Nonlinearity of the Phillips Curve and European Monetary Policy," Research Discussion Papers 17/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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