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What Makes the Output-Inflation Trade-Off Change? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan

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  • EMMANUEL DE VEIRMAN

Abstract

It is standard to model the output-inflation trade-off as a linear relationship with a time-invariant slope. We assess empirical evidence for two sets of theories that allow for endogenous variation in the slope of the short-run Phillips curve. At an empirical level, we examine why large negative output gaps in Japan in the late 1990s did not lead to accelerating deflation but instead coincided with stable, albeit moderately negative inflation. Our results suggest that this episode is most convincingly interpreted as reflecting a gradual flattening of the Phillips curve. We find that this flattening is best explained by models with endogenous price durations. These models imply that in any economy where trend inflation is substantially lower (or substantially higher) today than in past decades, time variation in the slope of the Phillips curve has become too important to ignore. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (09)
Pages: 1117-1140

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:6:p:1117-1140

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2011. "Inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero," Working Papers 11-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," Papers 1309.1757, arXiv.org.
  3. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro-Area Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 181-212, June.
  4. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2011. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Economics Working Paper Archive 580, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  7. André Meier, 2010. "Still Minding the Gap," IMF Working Papers 10/189, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Emmanuel de Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2012. "When Did Firms Become More Different? Time-Varying Firm-Specific Volatility in Japan," DNB Working Papers 351, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  9. Sarah Marit Lein & Eva Köberl, 2009. "Capacity Utilisation, Constraintes and Price Adjustments under the Microscope," Working Papers 2009-06, Swiss National Bank.
  10. Sudhanshu Kumar & Naveen Srinivasan & Muthiah Ramachandran, 2012. "A time-varying parameter model of inflation in India," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 25-50, April.
  11. Wimanda, Rizki E. & Turner, Paul M. & Hall, Maximilian J.B., 2011. "Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-438, May.

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