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The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules

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  • Schaling, Eric

Abstract

We study a simple, small dynamic economy that a policymaker is attempting to control via use of a monetary policy rule. The model features a convex Phillips curve, in that positive deviations of aggregate demand from potential are more inflationary than negative deviations are disinflationary. Using dynamic optimization techniques, we find that the form of the optimal monetary policy reaction function is asymmetric. We show that in the optimal rule the interest rate is a nonlinear function of the deviation of inflation from its target and of output from potential. With asymmetry, optimal monetary policy becomes more active as uncertainty about the impact of policy increases. We thus provide an important and novel theoretical reason why increased uncertainty can lead to more aggressive rather than toward more cautious optimal policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 361-86

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:36:y:2004:i:3:p:361-86

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1994. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/139, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
  3. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Hoeberichts, M.M. & Schaling, E., 1997. "Why Money Talks and Wealth Whispers: Monetary Uncertainty and Mystique," Discussion Paper 1997-47, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus," IMF Working Papers 95/76, International Monetary Fund.
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