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Piecewise Linear Feedback Rules in a Non Linear Model of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from the US and the UK

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Author Info
Corrado, L.
Holly, S.

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Abstract

Optimal nominal interest rates rule are usually set assuming that the underlying world is linear. Our work relaxes this assumption and examines the performance of optimal rules when non-linearities are present. In particular if the inflation-output trade off exhibits non linearities (convexities) this will impart a bias to inflation when a linear rule is used. To correct this bias we propose a piecewise linear rule, which can be thought of as an approximation to the non- linear rule of Schaling (1999). We show that this reduces the bias, but at the expense of an increase in the volatility of the nominal interest rate. Finally we examine how the zero floor on nominal interest rate affects output and inflation when both rules are adopted. With a linear feedback rule the output variability increases since nominal interest rate cannot be further reduced in presence of adverse shocks. The adoption of a piecewise rule with a zero floor on interest rates successfully reduces output volatility. Significant differences in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, between the USA and the UK, show up both in the form of the optimal feedback rule and in the distribution of outcomes when there is a zero floor to nominal interest rates and non-linearities in the Phillips curve.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0019.

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Date of creation: Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0019

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Related research
Keywords: optimal control feedback rules non-linear models.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1978. "A Program for Stochastic Simulation of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 235-36, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Joshua Aizenman & Ricardo Hausmann, 1994. "Why is Inflation Skewed? A Debt and Volatility Story," NBER Working Papers 4837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Brian F. Madigan, 1997. "Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 573-585, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Chadha J. & Schellekens Ph., 1999. "Monetary policy loss functions: two cheers for the quadratic," Working Papers 1999002, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Alexander L. Wolman, 1998. "Staggered price setting and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
  10. John B. Taylor, 1994. "The inflation/output variability trade-off revisited," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 21-24. [Downloadable!]
  11. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eric Schaling, . "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  13. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1991. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 91/97, International Monetary Fund.
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