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Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Mixing Feedback Rules and the Distribution of Inflation and Output

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  • Luisa Corrado

    ()
    (University of Rome II - Faculty of Economics)

  • Sean Holly

    ()
    (University of Cambridge - Department of Applied Economics)

Abstract

Optimal nominal interest rate rules are usually set assuming that the underlying world is linear. In this paper we consider the performance of optimal rules when the underlying relationship between inflation and the output gap may be nonlinear. In particular if the inflation-output trade off exhibits nonlinearities this will impart a bias to inflation when a linear rule is used. By deriving some analytical results for the higher moments and in particular the skewness of the distribution of output and inflation, we show that the sign of the skewness of the distribution of inflation and output depends upon the nature of the nonlinearity. For the convex modified hyperbolic function used by Chadha et al. (1992) and Schaling (1999) inflation is positively and output negatively skewed. Whereas, if a concave-convex form is used the skewness of inflation and output is reversed. To correct this bias we propose a piecewise linear rule, which can be thought of as an approximation to the nonlinear rule of Schaling (1999). In order to evaluate the relevance of these results, we turn to some illustrative empirical results for the US and the UK. We show that this reduces the bias, but at the expense of an increase in the volatility of the nominal interest rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 37.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 23 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:37

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Postal: CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma
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Web page: http://www.ceistorvergata.it
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Postal: CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma
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Web: http://www.ceistorvergata.it

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Keywords: Optimal Control; Feedback Rules; Nonlinear Models;

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References

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  1. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November.
  2. Corrado Luisa & Holly Sean & Turner Paul, 2002. "Nonlinearities and Inactivity in Aggregate Investment: Some Theoretical Analysis and Time-Series Evidence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-21, January.
  3. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are "deep" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998. "Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April.
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  6. Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001. "Nonlinear error correction models," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
  7. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1994. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/139, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Tramontana, F. & Gardini, L. & Ferri, P., 2010. "The dynamics of the NAIRU model with two switching regimes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 681-695, April.
  2. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
  3. Mayes , David G. & Virén , Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland.
  4. Hyeon-seung Huh & Hyun Lee & Namkyung Lee, 2009. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, NAIRU and monetary policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 131-151, September.

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