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Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty

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  • Holly,Sean
  • Hughes Hallet,Andrew

Abstract

The rational expectations revolution and other developments in economics (notably game theory) have fundamentally altered the application of optimal control theory to economic forecasting and planning. In particular, they have shown that economic systems cannot be modelled simplistically on physical systems. However, as the authors of this volume show, these developments have greatly enhanced our understanding of how an economy functions, and now make it possible for optimal control theory to be applied much more effectively to economic modelling and planning. This book is divided into two parts. The first presents the orthodox framework but extends it to allow for multiplicative uncertainty, risk and non-linearities in the econometric model. The second part looks explicitly at the question of expectations. It provides methods by which forward-looking expectations can be treated jointly with the determination of economic policy. It also examines game-theoretic considerations - where, for instance, policy makers may have incentive to renege on their commitments.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Cambridge University Press in its series Cambridge Books with number 9780521126335 and published in 2010.

Order: http://www.cambridge.org/uk/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521126335
Handle: RePEc:cup:cbooks:9780521126335

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Web page: http://www.cambridge.org

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Cited by:
  1. Sean Holly & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2005. "Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The case of the Bank of England's MPC," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 119, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Calkins, Peter H., 1995. "Transition to a New World Economic Order Part I: The Framework," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(02), August.
  3. Nicola Acocella & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2005. "Non-neutrality of economic policy: An application of the Tinbergen-Theil's approach to a strategic context," Working Papers 82, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  4. Acocella, Nicola & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2008. "When Can Central Banks Anchor Expectations? Policy communication and controllability," CEPR Discussion Papers 7078, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Armstrong, John & Black, Richard & Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David, 1998. "A robust method for simulating forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 489-501, April.
  6. Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2008. "Dynamic risk management of the lending rate policy of an interacted portfolio of loans via an investment strategy into a discrete stochastic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 658-675, July.
  7. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Giuli Francesco, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," wp.comunite 0061, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  8. Corrado, Luisa & Holly, Sean, 2003. "Nonlinear Phillips curves, mixing feedback rules and the distribution of inflation and output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 467-492, December.
  9. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1999. "Simplicity versus optimality the choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  11. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola, 2008. "Policy games, policy neutrality and Tinbergen controllability under rational expectations," wp.comunite 0034, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  12. Sengupta, Jati K., 1997. "Recent Models in Dynamic Economics: Problems of Estimating Terminal Conditions," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt05g0d8gm, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  13. Calkins, Peter H., 1995. "Transition to a New World Economic Order Part II: Strategies," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(03), December.

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