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Nonlinear inflation expectations and endogenous fluctuations

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  • Gomes, Orlando

Abstract

The standard new Keynesian monetary policy problem is, in its original presentation, a linear model. As a result, only three possibilities are admissible in terms of long term dynamics: the equilibrium may be a stable node, an unstable node or a saddle point. Fixed point stability (a stable node) is generally guaranteed only under an active monetary policy rule. The benchmark model also considers extremely simple assumptions about expectations (perfect foresight is frequently assumed). In this paper, one inquires how a change in the way inflation expectations are modelled implies a change in monetary policy results when an active Taylor rule is taken. By assuming that inflation expectations are constrained by the evolution of the output gap, we radically modify the implications of policy intervention: endogenous cycles, of various periodicities, and chaotic motion will be observable for reasonable parameter values.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2842.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2842

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Keywords: Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Inflation expectations; Endogenous business cycles; Nonlinear dynamics and chaos;

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  1. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2004. "The inflation bias when the central bank targets the natural rate of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-107, February.
  2. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
  3. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2001. "A Prudent Central Banker," Cahiers de recherche 2001-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  8. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  9. Tambakis Demosthenes N., 1999. "Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Asymmetric Loss," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, January.
  10. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, 07.
  11. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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