Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods
AbstractThe output gap is defined as the difference between the observed level of an economy's output and its trend or potential level. In the short term, an economy can produce above its potential level (a positive output gap) through unusually high levels of labour force participation, capacity utilisation, or technical progress. However, a positive output gap tends to generate inflationary pressures on the markets for factors of production. Once inflation accelerates, output will have to fall below its potential level (a negative output gap) to increase available resources and reduce the pressure on prices. Therefore, measures of the output gap are often used in macroeconomic analysis to assess current and future levels of inflationary pressures in the economy. This study reviews several of the many alternative methods of estimating output gaps and applies six of these to annual data for Luxembourg. These different measures of the output gap are then compared and evaluated in terms of their contribution to inflation forecasting. Methods based on unobserved components models tend to do better than simpler, better known methods (i.e. linear trends, the HP filter). Multivariate methods that consider the simultaneous evolution of several different economic variables tend to do better than univariate methods that limit themselves to the output series itself.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Luxembourg in its series BCL working papers with number 4.
Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bcl.lu/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
NBER Working Papers
1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996.
"Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
78, Bank of Canada.
- Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
- W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 2000.
"Output Gap and Inflation in the EU,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
44, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap - An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund.
- Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88.
- Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1998.
"A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU,"
Working Paper Series
74, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
- Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Susana Botas & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1998. "Estimation of potencial output for the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
- Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
- Dimitz, Maria Antoinette, 2001. "Output gaps and technological progress in European Monetary Union," Research Discussion Papers 20/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Consumers, Consumer Prices and the Czech Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers 2004/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg," BCL working papers 9, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Jimborean, Ramona, 2013.
"The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
- Jimborean, R., 2011. "The Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the New EU Member States," Working papers 341, Banque de France.
- Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Jaromir Hurnik & Jiri Podpiera & Jan Vlcek, 2005. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Potential Output," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 3, number rb03/1 edited by Vladislav Flek.
- C. Rigo, 2005. "The potential growth of the Belgian economy and its determinants," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue III, pages 45-64, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.