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Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches

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  • S. Adnan H. A. S., Bukhari
  • Safdar Ullah, Khan

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate potential output vis-à-vis output gap for Pakistan’s economy. This paper reviews six commonly used techniques to estimate potential output and from that the output gap. The results suggest that while measures of output gap are not identical they nonetheless do show some degree of association among each other. Therefore, a composite output gap is calculated for 1950 to 2007. The composite output gap depicts that Pakistan economy has been observing a cyclical episode of periods of excess supply followed by excess demand in the period of analysis. Furthermore, evidence suggests that Pakistan economy is currently experiencing rising demand pressures since FY05. These demand pressures show a high degree of correlation with the rising inflation as shown in the temporal correlation between inflation and composite of output gap measures.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28573/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9736.

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Date of creation: 06 Apr 2008
Date of revision: 20 Jun 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9736

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Keywords: gross domestic product; potential output; output gap;

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References

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  1. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2005. "Estimating Potential Output : a Survey of the Alternative Methods and their Applications to Brazil," Discussion Papers 1092, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  2. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  3. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Cesaroni, Tatiana, 2008. "Estimating potential output using business survey data in a SVAR framework," MPRA Paper 16324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  7. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  8. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  9. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  10. C�cile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 176, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  11. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir & Muhammad, Zeshan & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, real GDP and CO2 emissions nexus: a structural VAR approach in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34859, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2011.
  2. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-682.

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