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A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

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  • Adams, Charles
  • Coe, David T.

Abstract

The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with "real" and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1990s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and the natural rate.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8622/
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8647/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8622.

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Date of creation: 26 Oct 1989
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8622

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Keywords: Potential output; natural rate; systems estimation;

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  1. Coe, David T., 1989. "Structural Determinants of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 8623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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