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Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

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Author Info
Bjørnland, Hilde C. (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
Brubakk, Leif (Norges Bank)
Jore, Anne Sofie () (Norges Bank)

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Abstract

The output gap (measuring the deviation of output from its potential) is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a measure of economic fluctuations. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. The multivariate measures of the output gap have by far the best predictive power. This is in particular interesting, as they use information from data that are not revised in real time. We therefore compare the predictive power of alternative indicators that are less revised in real time, such as the unemployment rate and other business cycle indicators. Some of the alternative indicators do as well, or better, than the multivariate output gaps in predicting inflation. As uncertainties are particularly pronounced at the end of the calculation periods, assessment of pressures in the economy based on the uncertain output gap could benefit from being supplemented with alternative indicators that are less evised in real time.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 11/2006.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 04 May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2006_011

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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Related research
Keywords: Output gap; real time indicators; forecasting; Phillips curve;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2008. "Previsão de inflação com incerteza do hiato do produto no Brasil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211138520, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  2. S. Adnan H. A. S., Bukhari & Safdar Ullah, Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches," MPRA Paper 9736, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
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