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Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy

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Author Info
Troy Matheson (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

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Abstract

Stock and Watson (1999) show that the Phillips curve is a good forecasting tool in the United States. We assess whether this good performance extends to two small open economies, with relatively large tradable sectors. Using data for Australia and New Zealand, we find that the open economy Phillips curve performs poorly relative to a univariate autoregressive benchmark. However, its performance improves markedly when sectoral Phillips curves are used which model the tradable and non-tradable sectors separately. Combining forecasts from these sectoral models is much better than obtaining forecasts from a Phillips curve estimated on aggregate data. We also find that a diffusion index that combines a large number of indicators of real economic activity provides better forecasts of non-tradable inflation than more conventional measures of real demand, thus supporting Stock and Watson's (1999) findings for the United States.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2006/01.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2006/01

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alfred V. Guender & Yu Xie, 2006. "Is There an Exchange Rate Channel in the Forward-Looking Phillips Curve? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Assessing the fit of small open economy DSGEs," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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