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The unreliability of inflation indicators Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Stephen G. Cecchetti
Rita S. Chu
Charles Steindel
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Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance .
Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Apr ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2000:i:apr:n:v.6no.4Contact details of provider: Postal: 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001 Email: Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) Economic indicators Forecasting Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"The consumer price index as a measure of inflation ,"
Economic Review ,
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Other versions: Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
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Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997.
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Other versions: S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995.
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Economic Policy Review ,
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Agostino Consolo, 2006.
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Greg Tkacz, 2007.
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Jonas Dovern, 2006.
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Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers
436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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Scott Brave & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004.
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Economic Perspectives ,
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Kevin Ross & Angel J. Ubide, 2001.
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Jonathan H. Wright, 2003.
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International Finance Discussion Papers
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Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001.
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435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department.
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Other versions: Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2002.
"Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for US Inflation and GDP Growth? ,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2002/21, European University Institute.
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Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, .
"Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth? ,"
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[Downloadable!] Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006.
"Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth? ,"
International Journal of Forecasting ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2005.
"How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation ,"
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Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2007.
"A comparison of measures of core inflation ,"
Economic Policy Review ,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 19-38.
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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001.
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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices ,"
Journal of Economic Literature ,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001.
"Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices ,"
Proceedings ,
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[Downloadable!] Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005.
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Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006.
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[Downloadable!] Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007.
"Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better? ,"
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Sharon Kozicki, 2001.
"Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators? ,"
Economic Review ,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-42.
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Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, .
"Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth ,"
Working Papers
235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
[Downloadable!]
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Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2003.
"Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005.
"Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
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Ron Feldman & Jan Kim & Preston Miller & Jason Schmidt, 2003.
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Contributions to Macroeconomics ,
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Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005.
"A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures ,"
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