Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
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Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995.
"Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!]
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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999.
"Forecasting Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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