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Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policymakers

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  • Marlene Amstad
  • Simon Potter

Abstract

Central banks analyze a wide range of data to obtain better measures of underlying inflationary pressures. Factor models have widely been used to formalize this procedure. Using a dynamic factor model this paper develops a measure of underlying inflation (UIG) at time horizons of relevance for monetary policymakers for both CPI and PCE. The UIG uses a broad data set allowing for high-frequency updates on underlying inflation. The paper complements the existing literature on U.S. "core" measures by illustrating how UIG is used and interpreted in real time since late 2005.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 420.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:420

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Economic indicators ; Economic forecasting ; Monetary policy ; Banks and banking; Central;

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References

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  1. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
  5. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
  6. Jim Dolmas, 2005. "Trimmed mean PCE inflation," Working Papers 0506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Giannone, Domenico & Matheson, Troy, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," CEPR Discussion Papers 6469, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Inflation And The Distribution Of Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 188-196, May.
  10. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2003. "Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 0273, European Central Bank.
  13. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Time-Varying Pass-Through from Import Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence from an Event Study with Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  16. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
  17. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 237-252, 04.
  18. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
  19. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 175-192.
  20. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Luca Sala, . "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10177, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Robert J. Gordon, 1983. "Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980," NBER Working Papers 0744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 507-518.
  24. E. T. McPHEE., 1928. "Notes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 4(1), pages 92-95, 05.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Matheson, Troy, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," CEPR Discussion Papers 6469, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ádám Reiff & Judit Várhegyi, 2013. "Sticky Price Inflation Index: An Alternative Core Inflation Measure," MNB Working Papers 2013/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  5. Mark W. Watson & Ricardo Reis, 2007. "Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire," 2007 Meeting Papers 324, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Amstad, Marlene & Potter, Simon M. & Rich, Robert W., 2014. "The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG," Staff Reports 672, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2012. "A factorial decomposition of inflation in Peru: an alternative measure of core inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1331-1334, September.
  8. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
  9. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.

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