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Dynamic factor models

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Author Info
Breitung, Jörg
Eickmeier, Sandra

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Abstract

Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in a regression-based analysis. In this article we review recent work on dynamic factor models that have become popular in macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an empirical application we demonstrate that these models turn out to be useful in investigating macroeconomic problems. --

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,38.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4232

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Related research
Keywords: Principal components; dynamic factors; forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kapetanios, George, 2004. "A note on modelling core inflation for the UK using a new dynamic factor estimation method and a large disaggregated price index dataset," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 63-69, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2002. "Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for US Inflation and GDP Growth?," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/21, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. George Kapetanios, 2002. "Modelling Core Inflation for the UK Using a New Dynamic Factor Estimation Method and a Large Disaggregated Price Index Dataset," Working Papers 471, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? : Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  15. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2004. "Business Cycle Transmission from the US to Germany : a Structural Factor Approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Massimiliano Marcellino & Carlo A. Favero & Francesca Neglia, 2005. "Principal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with large data sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 603-620. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Schumacher, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Gonzalo Camba-Méndez & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation," Working Paper Series 402, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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