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La Inflación Subyacente en Colombia: Un Enfoque de Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas a un VEC Estructural

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Author Info
Martha Misas Arango ()
Enrique López Enciso ()
Juana Téllez Corredor ()
José Fernando Escobar ()

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Abstract

En este documento se presenta la estimación de la inflación subyacente en Colombia durante el período comprendido entre enero de 1983 y marzo del 2004, obtenida mediante un esquema de tendencias estocásticas comunes asociadas a un modelo vectorial de corrección de errores con restricciones de carácter estructural (SVEC). En el sistema de información, la inflación subyacente se relaciona de manera directa con el crecimiento de un agregado monetario amplio, el nivel del producto, los términos de intercambio y el crecimiento de los salarios nominales. La medida resultante de inflación subyacente corresponde a la estimación de largo plazo de la inflación que es obtenida mediante el modelo de tendencias estocásticas comunes. La inflación subyacente estimada posee las características deseadas en cuanto a varianza y está relacionada con el comportamiento de la inflación observada. Con el fin de probar las bondades de la metodología, se calculan dos series de pronósticos de la inflación y de la inflación subyacente, con sus respectivos intervalos de confianza, mediante técnicas de bootstrapping basadas en dos longitudes de muestreo que son seleccionadas de manera aleatoria.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 324.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:324

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 2002. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in an Open Economy," Working Paper Series 134, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  2. Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "El Producto Potencial en Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bagliano, Fabio C & Golinelli, Roberto & Morana, Claudio, 2002. "Core Inflation in the Euro Area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Recent Behavior of Output, Unemployment, Wages and Prices in Colombia:What went Wrong?," Borradores de Economia 249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient inflation estimation," Working Paper 9707, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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  10. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 1999. "Measuring Core Inflation in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 58(3-4), pages 301-328, December.
  11. K.S.E.M. Hubrich & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the euro area: differences in the transmission process of monetary policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155. [Downloadable!]
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  13. P.J.G. Vlaar, 2002. "Shocking the Eurozone," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 696, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Luis Fernando Melo & Franz A.Hamann, . "Inflación Básica.Una Estimación Basada en Modelos VAR Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 093, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2003. "A common trends model of UK core inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 157-172, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. R. Brüggemann, . "Sources of German Unemployment: A Structural Vector Error Correction Analysis," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-19, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  18. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  19. repec:bep:sndecm:6:2002:3:1092-1092 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Claus, I., 1997. "A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States," Working Papers 97-20, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  21. Christine Gartner & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries," Working Papers 33, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  24. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, 1998. "Improving The Measurement Of Core Inflation In Colombia Using Asymmetric Trimmed Means," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002818, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrés González & Luis Fernando Melo & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "Inflación y dinero en Colombia: otro modelo P-estrella," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002851, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posada & José Fernando Escobar, 2005. "Crédito Y Depósitos Bancariosen Colombia (1990-2004): Una Relación De Largo Plaz," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
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