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La Inflación Subyacente en Colombia: Un Enfoque de Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas a un VEC Estructural

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  • Martha Misas Arango

    ()

  • Enrique López Enciso

    ()

  • Juana Téllez Corredor

    ()

  • José Fernando Escobar

    ()

Abstract

En este documento se presenta la estimación de la inflación subyacente en Colombia durante el período comprendido entre enero de 1983 y marzo del 2004, obtenida mediante un esquema de tendencias estocásticas comunes asociadas a un modelo vectorial de corrección de errores con restricciones de carácter estructural (SVEC). En el sistema de información, la inflación subyacente se relaciona de manera directa con el crecimiento de un agregado monetario amplio, el nivel del producto, los términos de intercambio y el crecimiento de los salarios nominales. La medida resultante de inflación subyacente corresponde a la estimación de largo plazo de la inflación que es obtenida mediante el modelo de tendencias estocásticas comunes. La inflación subyacente estimada posee las características deseadas en cuanto a varianza y está relacionada con el comportamiento de la inflación observada. Con el fin de probar las bondades de la metodología, se calculan dos series de pronósticos de la inflación y de la inflación subyacente, con sus respectivos intervalos de confianza, mediante técnicas de bootstrapping basadas en dos longitudes de muestreo que son seleccionadas de manera aleatoria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 324.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:324

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posada & José Fernando Escobar, 2005. "Crédito Y Depósitos Bancariosen Colombia (1990-2004): Una Relación De Largo Plaz," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Andrés González & Luis Fernando Melo & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "Inflación y dinero en Colombia: otro modelo P-estrella," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002851, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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