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Desequilibrios Reales en Colombia

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  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Enrique López Enciso

    ()

Abstract

La evaluación de los desequilibrios en los mercados de bienes y trabajo permite un diagnóstico preciso de la fase en que se encuentra una economía en el ciclo económico. Es éste artículo se utiliza la metodología de vectores autorregresivos estructurales (SVAR) aplicada a un único sistema de información conformado por las variables de producto real, precios al consumidor, tasa de desempleo y utilización de la capacidad instalada para construir la brecha del producto y de desempleo. Para el cálculo de éstos dos indicadores fue necesario resolver un complejo problema de indentificación, de forma tal que se pudieran definir los shock estructurales que han afectado en el pasado la economía colombiana. La teoría económica, específicamente un modelo IS-LM microfundamentado, permite estipular 10 restricciones de largo plazo y solucionar el problema.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 181.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:181

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References

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  1. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Franz Hamann Salcedo, 1998. "Inflacion Basica. Una Estimacion Basada En Modelos Var Estructurales," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002848, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  5. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso, 1998. "El Producto Potencial En Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo Var Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002538, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López, 2000. "La Utilización De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003096, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "El Desempleo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 176, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Willie Belton & Richard Cebula, 2000. "Capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates: are they complements or substitutes in warning about future inflation?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(14), pages 1853-1864.
  10. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, . "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Borradores de Economia 125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  14. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-77, November.
  15. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Luis Fernando Melo & Alvaro Riascos, . "El Producto Potencial utilizando el Filtro de Hodrick- Prescott con Parámetro de Suavización Variable y Ajustado por Inflación: Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 083, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  18. Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Inflation Targets in a Global Context," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 2, pages 023-078 Central Bank of Chile.
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  21. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo, 2003. "Recent Behavior of Outpout , Unemployment, Wages and Prices in Colombia: What went wrong?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003417, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  3. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2002. "Modelos de crecimiento y estilos de desarrollo: varias precisiones y una conjetura," REVISTA APUNTES DEL CENES, UNIVERSIDAD PEDAGOGICA Y TECNOLOGICA DE COLOMBIA.

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